Shocking Assumptions Regarding EVs

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Kevin Cameron has been writing about motorcycles for nearly 50 years, first for <em>Cycle magazine</em> and, since 1992, for <em>Cycle World</em>. (Robert Martin/)

For many, electric vehicles—including electric motorcycles—are the wave of the future. But how long before that wave reaches our shoreline? I recently listened to a podcast by Nick Colas, an analyst and a founder of DataTrek Research, a firm which provides investment information. The subject was simple numerical analysis of three possible scenarios concerning the adoption of EVs in the US between now and 2030.

Colas notes that there are 250 million cars and light trucks registered in the United States today, and that each year roughly 6 percent of them, or 15 million, are replaced by new models. That rather gradual rate of replacement has, he said, resulted in the average US auto or light truck being 12 years old.

So here are his three scenarios: First, let’s imagine that by 2030 a whopping 70 percent of all-new vehicles sold here will be EVs. Right now they’re about 2 percent of sales per year. If that increases linearly from the present level to the assumed 70 percent in our time span, then by 2030 just 20 percent of the total US vehicle fleet will be electrics. (These numbers concern themselves with plug-in electrics only—no hybrids.)

Second scenario: If we change the assumption, imagining that by 2030 “only” 50 percent of new vehicles sold will be EVs, then by 2030 just 17 percent of the US vehicle fleet will be EVs.

The third scenario: If by 2030 EV sales make up 30 percent of all cars and light trucks sold in the US, then by 2030 just over 8 percent of the US vehicle fleet will be EVs.

These figures surprised me, but there’s a good reason for that: the slow rate of 6 percent a year at which vehicles are replaced. And there’s no reason to believe that will change soon.

For more, see this link. One wonders what the numbers are for motorcycles.

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