War in europe?

[Throttled]

It is sanctions on a level not seen before. There will be hardly anything to buy, which is moot, since most Russians will have little to make purchases with. Huge job losses, as lots of European companies close, will bite hard just as Russia is getting back to normal after the pandemic. Plus, this time, the oligarchs will be properly hit, even though they will not go hungry.

 

[S-Westerly]

I feel like I'm between a rock and a hard place. On one hand I've got Ukrainians who don't even know if they'll have a country to go home to. On the other I've got 2 Russians who I've known for years and are a couple of the nicest guys you could hope to meet. However they've not been paid last month and the company is scratching for ways to do it without breaking sanction rules. Might be impossible.  Also they are getting sent home in the next week or so and as it stands there is serious doubt as to whether they'll be able to come back. Now my company alone has about 450 Russian officers. Replacing them with any kind of a warm body is going to be incredibly hard. Now think about it - globally there's about 70,000 Russian officers on all these ships carrying your oil, gas, cars, wheat  toys and anything else that gets shipped by sea. Whose going to replace them? Its going to be a nightmare and will have knock ons as guys who are supposed to be relieved by Russians won't be. Of 9 officers on here 4 of us are supposed to be relieved by Russians and that's pretty typical across our fleet.

[KiwiBob]

Will sanctions work? Who knows?

 

In July 1941 the USA seized all Japans assets in the US in retaliation for Japans occupation of French Indo China. Britain and the Dutch did the same.

 

We all know what happened on 7th December!

 

Is Putin crazy enough to go nuclear rather than see the collapse of Russia due to sanctions? .. Let's hope he's not!

 

 

 

[S-Westerly]

I think the only thing that's fairly certain is Putin is crazed. Will he pull the whole world down the plug hole with him? We can only hope not.

[KiwiBob]

1 minute ago, S-Westerly said:

I think the only thing that's fairly certain is Putin is crazed. Will he pull the whole world down the plug hole with him? We can only hope not.

Crazy or not he's playing a very dangerous game. One wrong move by either side could be a disaster for the whole world!

[Bender]

23 minutes ago, KiwiBob said:

Crazy or not he's playing a very dangerous game. One wrong move by either side could be a disaster for the whole world!

Yup and thats where it could go very wrong. 

 

The collapse of the ruble is going to impact them its  $0.0096 to 1 ruble, that's got to hurt, mortgage rate at 18-20%, stock markets remain closed, 2nd biggest oil producer called for end to war, and mazepin has been dropped by hass. 

[rennie]

He needs a way out, without losing too much face!

Otherwise, with nothing left to lose, It will be even more catastrophic than it already is

[S-Westerly]

I think he's backed himself into a corner. Nothing less than the complete subjugation of Ukraine is going to allow him to claim success. He's like a cornered rat now. If he has to use chemical weapons which if they end up fighting through bombed out ruins is quite likely its going to get even worse. Its a nightmare for us all but most especially for those poor sods who are sheltering tonight in cellars and undergrounds wondering what will be left in the morning. For them I can only hope there is some kind of future worth living.

[Bender]

2 minutes ago, S-Westerly said:

I think he's backed himself into a corner. Nothing less than the complete subjugation of Ukraine is going to allow him to claim success. He's like a cornered rat now. If he has to use chemical weapons which if they end up fighting through bombed out ruins is quite likely its going to get even worse. Its a nightmare for us all but most especially for those poor sods who are sheltering tonight in cellars and undergrounds wondering what will be left in the morning. For them I can only hope there is some kind of future worth living.

Pretty much how I see it, unless the west can build a big off ramp for him he's going full tonto as they put it. 

[S-Westerly]

Don't see how the West can build an off ramp for him. What could we give him that he'd accept? Removal of NATO from the Baltic States? Allow his corrupt cronies full access? If we do any of that we've pretty well written the West out of the future.

[KiwiBob]

If the west does make concessions we probably won't hear what they are!

[S-Westerly]

True but in the West things do tend to come out eventually as there isn't the iron grip of fear and oppression that there is further East.

[Bender]

He will want,  neutral Ukraine, Ukraine limited army, half of Ukraine from luhansk to odesa, possibly including Moldova, all sanctions lifted and zelensky head on a stick

[bonio]

19 hours ago, Bender said:

Pretty much how I see it, unless the west can build a big off ramp for him he's going full tonto as they put it. 

This is the big problem. Was reading a history of WWII that said the military bods in Berlin knew they couldn't win the war by the end of 1941. But they kept on fighting for another three and a half years because there was no off ramp. They couldn't see any other option.

[Tiggie]

22 hours ago, S-Westerly said:

as there isn't the iron grip of fear and oppression that there is further East.

 

Come to my house and meet the Wife 

[Mississippi Bullfrog]

3 hours ago, bonio said:

This is the big problem. Was reading a history of WWII that said the military bods in Berlin knew they couldn't win the war by the end of 1941. But they kept on fighting for another three and a half years because there was no off ramp. They couldn't see any other option.

Same with the Russians in Afghanistan, and there's every possibility this could go the same way. The Russian forces won't win a protracted urban guerilla war and the people of Ukraine are well placed to give them just that. 

[S-Westerly]

Which is when the sod will bring out the chemical weapons which will of course have escaped from the secret labs that the US have in the Ukraine. I really do despise that man Putin.

[Marino]

On 04/03/2022 at 19:13, S-Westerly said:

I feel like I'm between a rock and a hard place. On one hand I've got Ukrainians who don't even know if they'll have a country to go home to. On the other I've got 2 Russians who I've known for years and are a couple of the nicest guys you could hope to meet. However they've not been paid last month and the company is scratching for ways to do it without breaking sanction rules. Might be impossible.  Also they are getting sent home in the next week or so and as it stands there is serious doubt as to whether they'll be able to come back. Now my company alone has about 450 Russian officers. Replacing them with any kind of a warm body is going to be incredibly hard. Now think about it - globally there's about 70,000 Russian officers on all these ships carrying your oil, gas, cars, wheat  toys and anything else that gets shipped by sea. Whose going to replace them? Its going to be a nightmare and will have knock ons as guys who are supposed to be relieved by Russians won't be. Of 9 officers on here 4 of us are supposed to be relieved by Russians and that's pretty typical across our fleet.

We have 25 Russians on board and they all getting paid no issue, Norwegian flag, only issue is now there is no more Russians coming on board as there is no flights and those on board must extend their contract. Same with Ukrainian, looks like they will stay for some time.

[Bender]

Poland going to give them migs and USA may give the some f16's, would have thought pilots and training would be an issue, won't stay in the air long if they are going where was that button again. 

 

Russia has hit one of the military bases with a long range missile 

[S-Westerly]

2 hours ago, Marino said:

We have 25 Russians on board and they all getting paid no issue, Norwegian flag, only issue is now there is no more Russians coming on board as there is no flights and those on board must extend their contract. Same with Ukrainian, looks like they will stay for some time.

The two remaining Russians on board are going next port. Beyond that we have no idea. They weren't paid last month due to the SWIFT sanctions so will be getting their pay in cash. Not feasible in the long term though and as we are on permanent salary not sure how they will get paid on leave as transferring dollars into Russian banks will be increasingly difficult. Bad times.

[Bender]

Visa and master card ending imminently 

[Marino]

3 hours ago, S-Westerly said:

The two remaining Russians on board are going next port. Beyond that we have no idea. They weren't paid last month due to the SWIFT sanctions so will be getting their pay in cash. Not feasible in the long term though and as we are on permanent salary not sure how they will get paid on leave as transferring dollars into Russian banks will be increasingly difficult. Bad times.

We have accounts with sea money, it’s based in US for any crew member that want it, and except officers (we get paid to our accounts) rest of the crew is paid that way. Actually is good because exchange rate they get when transfer to their country accounts is much better.

I was thinking to do the same as HSBC does not give best exchange ( we are paid in USD).

[nickjaxe]

If I lived in Ukraine I would say.....lets give in.....the other option.....fight and you will loose anyway......but many 1000s will be killed during that time....and the country destroyed.

Either way not good buy just giving in is the least worse option to me.

[Mississippi Bullfrog]

I see Shell have traded in Russian crude oil. Which means our usual meeting point at a local Shell forecourt will be changed. I went a bit further and filled up at a Texaco garage.

[Bender]

USA have agreed a deal with Poland, Poland gives Ukraine old migs and USA gives Poland f16's,  that's going to excite vlad, not great tech but Ukraine pilots can fly migs.