War in europe?

[Bender]

Things could go pear shaped very quickly

 

DRUZHBA OIL PIOPLINE distribution and storage facilities have mysteriously caught fire  

 

4 possible reasons,

 

1 Ukrain,  you can't invade a country and expect them to do nothing. 

 

2 sabotage at the plant

 

3 Russia did it so they could flatten kyiv 

 

4 unrelated accident like the sinking of the Moskva  

 

 

All of the above could be used as an escalation and the intro of low yield nukes. 

 

If nord stream 1 gets hit Germany will be looking pretty bad. 

 

 

 

[S-Westerly]

Although Ukraine is no laughing matter this raised a smile.

[fastbob]

Happy now ? 

[Bender]

27 minutes ago, fastbob said:

Happy now ? 

Unfortunately not all the pets and animals have survived, many have perished, starved to death or eaten each other after shelling left owners dead or animal shelters deserted. 

[Bender]

Well a lot has happened, Russia has had its nose put out of joint by a ukrainian offensive that has put more than egg on its face, russky shares have just dropped, Putin spoiled brat has delayed his big speech, central Bank gov has resigned poss in previous protest to mass mobilisation ie full on war, no doubt she will be falling out of a basement window imminently. 

 

What does all this mean, who knows but I doubt its good, unless Putin has a run in with a window. 

[Stu]

I can just see this getting worse

 

[Bender]

8 hours ago, Stu said:

I can just see this getting worse

 

Imminently. 

 

The presumption is the longer vlads speech is delayed the worse it will be. 

 

At a min its expected once the votes for new regions captured have taken place and they say yes to joining Russia which they will obviously, that leaves ukrainian forces inside Russian border so that's an attack on motherland and full army mobilisation will follow, Ukraine will need a huge amount of resources to fight 2 million reinforcements. 

 

 

[S-Westerly]

What equipment have the 2 million reinforcements got though? 

[husoi]

8 hours ago, Stu said:

I can just see this getting worse

 

 

I just hope I have enough time to get on my bike and have a final ride.

[Bender]

So, threats of nukes and partial mobilisation, the bit he's after is the 300,000 reservists who will be a mix of ex army and presumably the equivalent of our ta, minimal training and off to the front quickly and able to control the areas they have taken and push back Ukraine again. 

[husoi]

4 minutes ago, Bender said:

So, threats of nukes and partial mobilisation, the bit he's after is the 300,000 reservists who will be a mix of ex army and presumably the equivalent of our ta, minimal training and off to the front quickly and able to control the areas they have taken and push back Ukraine again. 

Except for the nukes, basically what Hitler did when Stalin started the run to Berlin and Allies arrived at Dunkerque...

[bonio]

I guess this means they've gone through the prisoners that were drafted in over the summer. The wise ones surrendered in their first week. 

[Bender]

33 minutes ago, bonio said:

I guess this means they've gone through the prisoners that were drafted in over the summer. The wise ones surrendered in their first week. 

They are extending prisoner recruitment to sex offenders and druggies, you have to be fit and clean, ie able to stand and point a gun behind you as your running away. 

[onesea]

So as I understand the reservists are being recruited from all walks of life, making our old press gangs look like angels with the bonus of the kings shilling.

 

I just hope Lizz and Europes leaders do not loose sight of the priorities in supporting Ukraine.  
It’s going to be a shit time, few are going to escape some changes in life style.

 

Winter is coming and Russia historically has done well out of harsh winters…. It’s just this time it seems they have mastered the ability to export it.

[Bender]

48 minutes ago, onesea said:

So as I understand the reservists are being recruited from all walks of life, making our old press gangs look like angels with the bonus of the kings shilling.

 

I just hope Lizz and Europes leaders do not loose sight of the priorities in supporting Ukraine.  
It’s going to be a shit time, few are going to escape some changes in life style.

 

Winter is coming and Russia historically has done well out of harsh winters…. It’s just this time it seems they have mastered the ability to export it.

No they've had some disasters in winter

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

[MikeHorton]

23 minutes ago, Bender said:

No they've had some disasters in winter

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

Yep the Finns more than held their own. Ukraine seem to think the winter may go in their favour. Poorly equipped Russian conscripts will struggle in towns that have already been flattened 

[onesea]

34 minutes ago, Bender said:

No they've had some disasters in winter

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/how-russian-winter-froze-hitler’s-nazi-empire-its-tracks-190821

My bad, I thought the Russians had relied on the miles to Moscow and a hard winter to defend themselves more than once.

Maybe it’s just an area not to be fighting war in winter, certainly be-careful about being on the offensive. I would of thought winter there is not the time to send in 1000’s of untrained conscripts.

 

 IMO the best outcome for this war is to come from within Russia, the people are again speaking out.  However that will bring more uncertainty for the rest of the world as Russia realigns to what ever follows.

[Bender]

Winter looked after them well in ww2. I fear winter will be used as a lull to re group dig in and plan, learning from mistakes made. 

[bonio]

There's no benefit to be had for anyone if Putin were to fall: plenty there ready to take his place, and many far worse. The idea of a benign, liberal opposition ready to take power in Moscow is nothing more than an idol the West has created in its own image.

[Bender]

Just to up the rhetoric us has today come out with this

 

U.S. warns of catastrophic consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

[onesea]

4 minutes ago, bonio said:

There's no benefit to be had for anyone if Putin were to fall: plenty there ready to take his place, and many far worse. The idea of a benign, liberal opposition ready to take power in Moscow is nothing more than an idol the West has created in its own image.

The same as Iraq and Afghanistan many countries are held together by leadership good or bad with plenty of internal factions being kept in check.

4 minutes ago, Bender said:

Just to up the rhetoric us has today come out with this

 

U.S. warns of catastrophic consequences if Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine

Sadly the nature of 2 side having the button you don’t want to use is if the other side threatens to you would feel obliged to threaten to use it back…

 

Sadly it’s a dangerous game that can so easily go wrong.

[Bender]

I give you the mysterious nord stream gas leak 

[onesea]

1 hour ago, Bender said:

I give you the mysterious nord stream gas leak 

The political ripples are going to be bigger than those.  It’s going to be interesting to see what happens next.  Reports are even in political will existed technical means they will not get the pipelines on line for the winter.

I guess gas tankers will be of an even greater premium for a years, as long as they don’t acquire holes as well

 

 

[Bender]

13 hours ago, onesea said:

The political ripples are going to be bigger than those.  It’s going to be interesting to see what happens next.  Reports are even in political will existed technical means they will not get the pipelines on line for the winter.

I guess gas tankers will be of an even greater premium for a years, as long as they don’t acquire holes as well

 

 

Just getting the water out will be bad enough, let alone fixing it. It's at a driveable depth but all fingers appear to point to Russia. 

[MikeHorton]

A snorkel and some of this should fix it!